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Every published figure is defined here. Where the tracker models rather than measures, it says so and shows the assumption.
A two-gigawatt press release and two gigawatts under construction are not the same fact, and almost every published figure on AI infrastructure adds them together. This tracker keeps them apart in the schema, in the calculations and on every page.
Two fields carry capacity on each project: estimatedPowerMw for an announced or reported target, and confirmedPowerMw for capacity a source states is energized. They are never averaged and never merged. Where both exist, the confirmed figure is used and the estimate remains visible on the project page.
A blank is not a zero. A project with no disclosed capacity is counted as unknown and excluded from the denominator, and every capacity headline reports how many projects it actually rests on.
| View | Counts |
|---|---|
| Announced | Best figure per project, all statuses except cancelled. The industry-standard number, published for comparability. |
| Credible pipeline | Announced, less cancelled, rumored, paused. Still a pipeline measure — not a commitment and not operating capacity. |
| Under construction or beyond | Under construction, Partially operational, Operational. Capacity backed by physical work. |
| Confirmed operating | Only confirmedPowerMw values — a source states the capacity is energized. Statuses partially operational or operational. |
Capacity figures may describe IT load, total site power or on-site generation. Where a source distinguishes them, the basis is recorded in the claim's methodology field and shown on the project page. Where it does not, the project is marked basis unclear rather than assumed.
A single modelled figure, published alongside the raw ones. Each project's best power figure is multiplied by the weight of the confidence level attached to its own power claim, then summed across the credible pipeline. These weights are judgement, not measurement.
| Claim confidence | Weight |
|---|---|
| CONFIRMED | 100% |
| HIGH | 80% |
| MEDIUM | 50% |
| LOW | 25% |
| ESTIMATED | 25% |
A project whose power claim carries no confidence assessment is weighted at the floor rather than assumed sound. Rumoured, paused and cancelled capacity is excluded entirely. Treat the result as a modelled estimate and cite the raw figures instead where precision matters.
Each project carries a categorical assessment rather than a score, because a number would invent precision the evidence cannot support and hide the reason. The components below are evaluated from evidence already on the project page and shown in full beside the verdict.
| State | Means |
|---|---|
| Confirmed | A primary source states operating capacity at this site. |
| High confidence | Physical work is under way and the evidence includes a primary source. |
| Medium confidence | Corroborated by more than one source, but not yet backed by physical evidence. |
| Early stage | Announced and sourced, but nothing beyond announcement is evidenced. |
| Speculative | Rumoured, MOU-stage, or resting on a single secondary report. |
| Stale | Not re-verified recently enough to rely on without checking. |
| Insufficient evidence | Too little sourced material to assess. |
Confirmed operating capacity outranks staleness: an energized facility does not become less energized because nobody re-checked it this quarter. A paused project is not marked stale either — "not moving" is the accurate description, not a gap in the record.
A separate axis from credibility. A project can be entirely real and have no identified electricity, so megawatts announced are never treated as megawatts secured.
| State | Means |
|---|---|
| Operating capacity confirmed | A source states capacity that is energized and serving load. |
| Capacity basis stated | The source distinguishes IT load from total site power or on-site generation. |
| Capacity basis unclear | A megawatt figure exists but the source does not say whether it is IT load, site power or generation. |
| No capacity disclosed | No megawatt figure has been sourced for this project. |
Restrictions are graded 0–5 on how hard they bind, from an advisory study to an indefinite prohibition. Only restrictions that genuinely block, and that are in force now, count toward capacity at risk.
A project is counted once, at its largest affected capacity, so overlapping county and state restrictions cannot inflate the same megawatts twice. Links between a restriction and a project are asserted by an analyst from reporting — never inferred from matching location names.
The result is deliberately smaller than an ordinance count. See the siting page for how many live restrictions block nothing at all.
Figures combine reported disclosures with clearly labelled analyst estimates. Review the underlying sources and confidence levels before citing or relying on any figure. Not investment advice.